Monetary policy officials are hinting to financial markets that the Federal Reserve will stop raising interest rates—even as the Fed signals that it is too early to declare victory over inflation. Wary investors can only speculate, while market analysts are happy to guess the Fed’s next move.

Before the Fed announces its latest interest-rate decision on Wednesday, we should recognize that dramatic shifts in monetary policy that affect financial outcomes far into the future aren’t predictable. They occur when unexpected financial events force unanticipated actions.