As voters hit the polls Tuesday in Arizona, Missouri and Michigan, our ears ring with Minority Leader Mitch McConnell’s caution about Senate elections: “It’s a perfect storm of problems for the Democrats. How could you screw this up? It’s actually possible. And we’ve had some experience with that in the past.”

In Arizona Blake Masters leads the GOP Senate field by 13 points, according to the Real Clear Politics average. Can he beat Sen. Mark Kelly in November? Mr. Masters has courted controversy on race and the Jan. 6 riot. “Don’t we suspect that like one-third of the people outside of the Capitol complex on January 6 were actual FBI agents hanging out?” he said this spring.