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Senate races are different from other midterm contests: Only a third of Senate seats are up every two years, so generally one party has more to defend than the other. There are 21 Republican seats and only 14 Democratic ones up this year.
Republicans benefit from Americans’ dissatisfaction with the status quo. Only 27% think the U.S. is headed in the right direction, while 66% think it’s on the wrong track, according to Wednesday’s RealClearPolitics average. It helps that the issues the GOP is good on—the economy, inflation and crime—are dominant. President Biden’s 43% approval rating gives them a boost. President Obama’s was at 46% in 2010 and 42% in November 2014. The Republicans gained Senate seats in both those midterms.
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