Even as the pandemic continues to take its toll, the U.S. has experienced a surprisingly strong economic recovery. Since President Biden’s inauguration, the U.S. economy has created nine million new jobs. Private-sector jobs have fully recovered. Yet the Federal Reserve, led by Jerome Powell, is on the verge of sacrificing all this progress in its effort to tamp down inflation. With Mr. Powell expected to announce another round of aggressive interest-rate hikes, the Fed risks triggering a devastating recession.

Inflation is a global phenomenon inflicting significant financial pain on families everywhere. Rising costs are an urgent problem, and interest rates play a key role in maintaining price stability. But urgency is no excuse for doubling down on a dangerous treatment. As with any illness, the right medicine starts with the right diagnosis. Unfortunately, the Fed has seized on aggressive rate hikes—a big dose of the only medicine at its disposal—even though they are largely ineffective against many of the underlying causes of this inflationary spike.